OM National Seed?

[tlsu]

I'm sure there's a lot of talk heating up, here's my analysis of the situation.

With a win today OM can move into either a championship or co-championship position, 40 wins overall and 20 wins in conference. Since this is occurring rather late, OM is not going to be placed into the discussion unless a strong case can be made to take a national seed from a team currently in there.

Pros: (assuming a Saturday win):
40 wins in a tough conference
Conference Championship
18-9 vs. Top 50 RPI
7-3 last 10 games

Cons:
RPI #16
Schedule rank: 33
3-3 vs. #50-100 RPI
21 games vs. sub-100 RPI teams

We all know the committee looks at a variety of things when making the selections. If I'm a committee member, I can't find a more valuable statistic than wins against the RPI Top 50. After all, aren't we sending teams to a tournament where they're going to be playing Top 50 teams (after the 4's are gone)? In this category, the SEC runs away from everyone else, it seems like they dont look at this statistic too hard.

The main deal will be RPI. I personally think the RPI formula is totally *beep*, as the bonus/penalty system for out of conference games obviously hurts teams that play tough competition each weekend in their conference, while it benefits nobodies who play garbage each weekend and will occasionally face a high RPI opponent in the midweek (when the high-RPI opponent is likely looking ahead to a big series that weekend).

Example:
UC-Irvine (considered a lock)
8-4 vs. Top 50 RPI
11-5 vs. #51-100.

Irvine has played as many games against the Top 100 as Ole Miss has against the Top 50, yet somehow they have a higher RPI and are considered a lock.

Fullerton (lock)
9-7 vs. Top 50.

Once again, 1/3 the quality games that the SEC has, along with the fact that they're facing them one at a time while we are forced to find 3 pitchers good enough to beat those opponents any given weekend.

The best potential seed for OM to steal is Georgia Tech's.
34-14-1 overall
17-9-1 conference
14-12-1 vs. Top 50 (definitely not a strong winning percentage)
Just lost to Duke.
RPI is #5, but another loss to Duke could fix that.


When it all comes down to it, I think that OM win/GT loss today would put OM into the discussion. As of now, they're not quite in that discussion yet despite deserving to be there, merely because playing yourself in late puts you in a situation to have to take someone else's. Root for the Blue Devils today, hope pitching can hold up without Bittle, and see how it all works out.

[john_avery_fast]

The SEC will probably get 2 national seeds. LSU is in, no doubt. It then comes down to OM and FLA. What happens in Hoover will be the deciding factor. In 2005 we were in a similar situation: locked up a hosting spot, but with an outside chance of a national seed. The run to the tourney title game pushed us to the #5 spot. a similar showing could do the same thing (not necessarily the 5 seed, but a top 8).

[oxfordrebel]

You have to take history and attendance into account as a big factor. Plus rationalization, even in the Super Regionals.

Irvine and Fullerton are good picks. Both are good teams, considering they are West Coast teams (out of other possible West Coast teams...and I don't mean West Coast Conference, just all teams on the West Coast).

GT has history and are consistently a good team. ATL is really centrally located, but so is Oxford.

LSU is a lock, IMO, due to major baseball history, consistent attendance figures, and win percentage.

Ole Miss will offer a really nice bid, attendance at Oxford Regionals are ALWAYS top 3 or 4 in the nation and we do have a very central location in our region for teams that will likely make the field of 64.

I think Ole Miss makes a very solid argument for being a national seed. But selection committees can do really funny things, so we'll just have to wait and see.

[tlsu]

I agree with the above.

Ole Miss is in a far better position after today.

GT lost, Rice is down 13-10 (and was in the discussion to lose their NS before this). Looking good for the Rebels.

[oxpatchreb]

I agree with the above.

Ole Miss is in a far better position after today.

GT lost, Rice is down 13-10 (and was in the discussion to lose their NS before this). Looking good for the Rebels.

While I appreciate your sentiments, and I agree that we are still in the hunt for a NS, my brain hurts from last weekend. If we could have played like even a strong highschool team against the *beep*ing bulldogs, we'd have swept them and locked it in with an outright SEC title.

This is why I have less than 50% confidence in a deep SECT run. Not to mention, we have NO idea how Bittle will fare.

I'm expecting nothing more than a regional host and a tough super on the road to get to Omaha.

[oxfordrebel]

I agree with the above.

Ole Miss is in a far better position after today.

GT lost, Rice is down 13-10 (and was in the discussion to lose their NS before this). Looking good for the Rebels.

While I appreciate your sentiments, and I agree that we are still in the hunt for a NS, my brain hurts from last weekend. If we could have played like even a strong highschool team against the *beep*ing bulldogs, we'd have swept them and locked it in with an outright SEC title.

This is why I have less than 50% confidence in a deep SECT run. Not to mention, we have NO idea how Bittle will fare.

I'm expecting nothing more than a regional host and a tough super on the road to get to Omaha.

Chill, man. This is a great team who flubbed it up last weekend. They're still in the hunt and anything can happen. Remember that the Hoover Met has been Swayze Field-East for the past few years. I fully expect the Rebels to be playing come next Saturday. 8)

[olemissreb_30]

Lets hope the baseball selection commitee is different than the tennis selection commitee!

[tlsu]

I honestly don't think either LSU or Ole Miss (teams and coaches) is overly worried about the SEC tournament or how deep they get. Nearly all the coaches in the conference have expressed their dislike of a tourney right before a tourney, and everyone tends to be conservative with arms/pitch counts.